Want To Eliminate Unnecessary Complexity? Here Are a Medieval Monk’s 4 Rules For Simplicity
William of Ockham was an interesting guy.
Born in 1287 in Ockham, Surrey (where he got his name), he studied theology at Oxford, was a philosopher, logician, and a Franciscan Friar. Due to some disagreements with the papacy on certain catholic doctrines, some called him a heretic, and he was excommunicated in 1328.
Ironically, while leading what seems to be a very complicated life, he is best known for a mental model all about simplicity: “Occam’s Razor”.
What’s so great about this principle is that it provides guidelines for when one should prefer a simple versus complex explanation.
Let’s dive in.
Rule #1: Prefer the Simple
The core tenant of Occam’s Razor is that when all things are equal, and presented with two hypotheses or explanations that both describe a scenario equally well, you should prefer the simpler explanation to the more complex one.
Here is a quick YouTube video that provides a great summary of Occam’s Razor.
This can be applied to science, statistics, behavior, medical diagnoses, business and many other areas.
Example:
- You’re standing in line at your local convenience store. The person behind you, a stranger, is rude to you.
- Theory 1: You worry this person actually knows you, hates you and has been rude to you because they have a vendetta against you.
- Theory 2: You then think maybe this person is just having a bad day.
Occam’s Razor suggests you prefer Theory 2 over Theory 1. Both explain the situation, but Theory 1 is more complicated.
Rule #2: Simple Explanations are More Likely to be Correct
Based on pure probability, the simpler explanation is more likely to be correct.
A complicated explanation requires a lot more variables to be correct. Each additional variable present increases the likelihood of an entire theory being false.
A simpler explanation, by definition has fewer variables, fewer things that can be false, and thus less likely to be false when compared to a complicated theory.
Let’s look at the above example and break down their variables:
With Theory 1:
- The person has to know you
- The person has to hate you
- The person has to have a personal vendetta against you
That’s three different components that need to be true in order for Theory 1 to prove out. If any one of these are wrong, the whole thing is wrong.
With Theory 2:
- The person has to be having a bad day
That’s just a single thing that needs to be true in order for Theory 2 to prove out.
More things that can go wrong = less likely to be true.
Rule #3: Not a Law
It’s important to remember that Occam’s Razor is a tendency, NOT a law.
It’s a heuristic, a rule of thumb, a bias. It is not something to live by.
Going back to our example above, Theory 1 CAN be true. It’s just less likely to be true when compared to Theory 2.
Rule #4: Avoid Artificial Simplicity
Since Occam’s Razor is a tendency and not a law, avoid over prescribing it.
Don’t oversimplify things that shouldn’t be.
Some things in life just aren’t that simple.
And to that end, as Farnam Street puts it in The Great Mental Models Vol. 1, “An explanation can be simplified only to the extent that it can still provide an accurate understanding.”
So, if your explanation no longer covers the full picture, you’ve oversimplified.